[Ferrosilicon Market] At the beginning of August, due to the obvious impact of production cut on the supply side, and with the gradual repair of the downstream steel market, the ferrosilicon market turnover increased slightly, and the inventory was also digested to a certain extent; The price performance of steel tender has improved, and the spot market of ferrosilicon remained stable. However, the Futures has gone up and down, and the market sentiment was still cautious. After all, the contradiction between supply and demand has not been eliminated, and the inventory pressure was still large. Subsequently, HBIS Group announced its tender price in August with 8000 yuan per ton, with a month on month decrease of 200 yuan per ton; The volume was 2100 tons, 160 tons less than that in July. The downstream was still purchased on demand, and the market turnover was normal; On August 11, Qinghai Province issued the notice on carrying out the third batch of energy-saving on-site diagnosis, but as it was still in the investigation stage, the specific impact needed continuous attention.
In the third week of August, under the influence of the overall weakness of the new round of the ferrous metal market, the Futures fell rapidly and sharply, driving the spot quotation down slightly, and curbing the resumption of production sentiment of enterprises. The market lacked favorable factors, and the resumption of production in the production area was slow. The output of ferrosilicon in August would still be low. In the late ten days of the year, the Futures again stopped falling and rebounded. Some steel mills took the lead in purchasing. The price of the new round of tender was mostly around 7900-8000 yuan per ton. There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, waiting for representative steel mills to enter the market and set the tone; The transportation in Shenmu area of Shaanxi Province was limited (the normal social order has been gradually restored since 0:00 on August 31), and the price of semi-coke has increased slightly, which had a certain support for the ferrosilicon market. The traditional peak season in September has arrived, and many people in the industry were optimistic about it, believing that ferrosilicon has the expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Pay attention to the keynote of steel tender, the trend of Futures and the performance of "September-October" traditional peak season.
[Futures Market] In August, the opening price of 2210 contract was 7904, the highest price was 8274, the lowest price was 7270, the closing price was 7812, the settlement price was 7840, the trading volume was 2187900, and the position was 103710, a decrease of 0.48%.
[Ferrosilicon Exports] According to data of China Customs, in July 2022, China exported 57710.498 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), an increase of 144 tons on a month on month basis and 965 tons on a year-on-year basis (57566.397 tons in June 2022; 56745.327 tons in July 2021). From January to July 2022, China exported 442297.7 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), a year-on-year increase of 57.88% (280149.445 tons were exported from January to July 2021). In July 2022, China exported 2567.62 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤ 55% of silicon), an increase of 12.50% month on month and 50.20% year-on-year. From January to July 2022, China exported 15504.277 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤ 55% of silicon), a year-on-year increase of 19.23%.
[Downstream Steel] Since August, the domestic steel market has been in the alternate stage of the traditional slack and peak seasons. The steady growth policy has been continuously implemented, which has driven the gradual recovery of downstream steel demand. With the easing of the cost pressure of steel enterprises, the continuous decontamination of inventory, and the improvement of the profits of some steel varieties, the enthusiasm of steel mills to resume production has gradually increased; But after all, the resilience of demand in the off-season was insufficient, there were still many uncertainties at home and abroad, and the market sentiment was still cautious with the increase of steel mills resuming production and the slowdown of inventory destocking. Affected by the continuous extreme high temperature weather in late August, the power supply in the South was tight, and almost all the electric furnace steel-making plants in some provinces stopped production. In addition, the cost of electricity and scrap steel affected the start-up of steel plants, thus suppressing the demand for ferrosilicon. At present, the supply side was gradually recovering, the apparent demand has not improved significantly, and the upward power of the steel market was insufficient. However, the "September-October" traditional peak season is coming, and with the support of a series of stable growth measures, many people in the industry still have confidence in the next market.
[Downstream Magnesium] In the first half of August, the domestic magnesium metal market remained weak and stable under the condition that the contradiction between supply and demand still existed. The demand was weak, the transaction volume was light, the price fell slightly, and most people watched cautiously. Until the third week, the magnesium market rebounded at the bottom overnight, rising steadily and then running firmly. The reason for the rise was mainly that exporters concentrated on delivery and procurement, which formed a certain support for 75 # ferrosilicon. Although the magnesium price soon suffered pressure and weakened slightly due to the limited terminal demand, the difficulty in accepting high downstream prices, and the cautious follow-up of transactions, the "restricted logistics of Shenmu plus price increased of raw coal" once again supported the rapid rise of magnesium price to about 27000 yuan per ton. With the restoration of normal order in Shenmu area on August 31, the magnesium price eased and retreated. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots was about 26000-26500 yuan per ton.
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