[Ferrosilicon Market] After the Spring Festival, the performance of the ferrosilicon market was weaker than expected, and most manufacturers maintained normal production. According to statistics, the output in February was about 479200 tons, a decrease of 32800 tons from January, a decrease of 23500 tons from the same period last year; The cumulative output was around 997200 tons from January to February; Downstream, the resumption of steel production was stronger than the recovery of demand, and the demand for alloy reduced. In February, HBIS Group's 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 8430 CNY/T, down 320 CNY/T on a month-on-month basis. The tender quantity was 1466 tons, down 633 tons on a month-on-month basis, and the market transaction was sluggish; There was much fluctuation and obvious decline in the Futures market (the Futures market turned upside for a time, which temporarily eased the long-depressed mood, but soon fell again), and the support for the spot market was weak; The price of semi-coke on the cost side rose significantly (Shenmu Semi-coke Group Co., Ltd. issued a notice that the ex-factory price of the small-sized material was set at 1480 CNY/T from 00:00 on February 24, 2023), which formed a certain support for the ferrosilicon market, but the intensity was insufficient. Although the demand was released to some extent as the further recovery of the downstream resumption in late-February, and the inquiry transaction was slightly improved, the inventory pressure of factories in some regions was gradually increased, and the spot price of ferrosilicon was continuously reduced, and the pessimism was strong. It was expected that the ferrosilicon market would remain relatively weak in the absence of positive news. Pay attention to the performance of steel tender in March, the trend of Futures market and the change of supply and demand relationship.
[Ferrosilicon Futures Market] In February 2023, the market of ferrosilicon Futures fluctuated significantly and operated in shock. The opening price of 2305 main contract was 8306, the highest price was 8346, the lowest price was 7772, the closing price was 7988, the settlement price was 7994, the trading volume was 3384267, and the position was 156513, down 4.45%.
[Downstream Steel Market] In February, the price of Futures fell first and then rose, with a monthly increase of 2.45%, providing some support for the spot market. On the supply side, with the continuous resumption of production of blast furnace and electric furnace, the output of crude steel has risen steadily: according to the data of the CISA, in early-February 2023, the total output of crude steel produced by key iron and steel enterprises was 20.621 million tons, and the daily output was 2.0621 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 3.77%; In the middle of February, 20.9283 tons of crude steel was produced by key iron and steel enterprises, with a daily output of 2.0928 million tons, up 1.49% month-on-month. On the demand side, with the gradual resumption of downstream projects, the steel turnover has improved, but the inventory pressure was still large (according to the data of the CISA, the steel inventory of key iron and steel enterprises in the middle of February was 19.53 million tons, an increase of 1.505 million tons or 8.32% over the previous ten days; An increase of 3.4612 million tons or 21.54% over the same period last month; An increase of 6.4734 million tons or 49.58% over the end of last year; Compared with the same period last year, it increased 2.6265 million tons or 15.54%). At present, the recovery of demand was insufficient, and the reduce-stocking speed was slow. Although the market was generally optimistic about the future market, the current sentiment was still cautious, believing that there was still some uncertainty and lack of confidence. However, the operation of the raw material end was relatively strong, and the support for the market was firm. It was expected that the steel price would not move down significantly.
[Downstream Magnesium Market] After Spring Festival, the domestic magnesium market has maintained a stable operation for about ten days. Due to the weak downstream demand, the transaction was dissatisfied, and the export situation was poor. The manufacturer said that it was difficult to conclude transactions, the inventory pressure was gradually increasing, and the quotation was gradually reduced. During mid-February, the production cost of magnesium metal increased, the manufacturer's quotation was rising at one time. The magnesium metal market temporarily stopped falling and warmed up, but it was a pity that it did not last long, only supported for two days, and fell again! In addition, industry insiders were also not optimistic about the future market, and most of them were cautious. When lack of positive factors, it was expected that the magnesium market would remain weak in the short term. At the end of February, the mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots was about 21100-21300 CNY/T, down 800-900 CNY/T from the beginning of the month.