Australia is expected to increase its production of copper, nickel and zinc over the next two years, according to the government's commodity forecaster.

Copper exports in metal content terms are projected to rise to 934,000t in 2022-23 from 898,000t in 2020-21, said the latest edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly review issued by the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), with earnings increasing to A$14.7bn ($10.5bn) from A$11.4bn on sustained price gains next year and increased volumes in 2023. Australia is the world's sixth-largest copper producer but has the second-largest resources.

Spot copper prices will average $9,200/t in 2021, the OCE said, with historically high prices remaining supported next year by a global economic recovery and expanded use of copper in low emissions technology. But it sees the average price retreating to around $8,500/t in 2023 on new global mine supplies.

Australian nickel exports in metal content terms rise to 272,000t in 2022-23 from 181,000t in 2020-21 on new projects and expansions of existing projects. Export earnings are expected to rise to A$5.2bn in 2021-22, dropping slightly to A$4.8bn in 2022-23 but still significantly higher than the A$3.8bn in 2020-21.

The OCE forecasts an average nickel price of $18,388/t in 2021, up by 34pc on 2020 because of continuing firm demand for stainless steel, growing demand from electric vehicle batteries and some supply-side disruptions. Australia has around a quarter of the world's nickel resources and is the most significant nickel sulphide producer.

The country's zinc production is expected to rise to 1.4mn t in 2022-23 from 1.3mn t in 2020-21. Export earnings increase to A$4.1bn in 2021-22, dropping to around A$3.6bn in 2022-23 but still higher than A$3.3bn in 2020-21. A rise in refined zinc output is anticipated to offset lower zinc prices over the period. Australia is the world's third-largest zinc producer.

The OCE forecasts zinc prices averaging $2,990/t in 2022, supported by government infrastructure plans. But a lower average price of $2,675/t is expected in 2023 as global production increases and consumption growth normalises.

Source: Argusmetal