【Ferro-alloys.com】Wheat futures prices rallied on March 1 as market participants were concerned over the potential disruption to the global wheat supply as Russia's invasion of Ukraine stranded shipments.

At 0322 GMT on March 2, the May soft red winter wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade gained 24 cents to cross the $10.08/bushel. On the Minneapolis Grains Exchange, too, the March spring wheat futures contract rose 65 cents to $10.54/bu.

On March 1, the CBOT May contract of soft red winter wheat settled at $9.84/bu, the highest level since 2008.

Russia and Ukraine's combined wheat exports for the 2021-22 marketing year are estimated to account for 23% of the global total of 206.9 million mt, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Black Sea wheat export prices also rallied to reach a record high as port closures and blockages on ship navigation were stranding supplies.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights' Platts assessments, Russia's 12.5% wheat FOB prices rose $15/mt day on day to $375/mt on March 1. Similarly, Ukraine's 11.5% protein wheat FOB prices rose $22/mt on the day to $370/mt on March 1.

The escalating conflict in the region has created volatility in global wheat markets and raised issues over disruption of supplies, traders added. The uncertainties were seen deterring buyers to place orders for Black Sea wheat, they added.

Trade overview
Wheat trade from Black Sea region has become stranded since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. While commercial movement in the Azov Sea stands closed, markets await further clarity on trade flows from the Black Sea region.

According to market participants, demand for Black Sea wheat is being met by supplies from Romania and Bulgaria in the short-term.

There is also a likelihood that buyers in the Middle East, who usually purchase Black Sea wheat in large quantities, may move to Argentina, the US, and India to fulfill their requirements, they added.

As of Feb. 21, Ukraine's wheat exports have risen 34% so far in the marketing year 2021-22 (July-June), with exports at 17.8 million mt. S&P Global Commodity Insights projected Ukraine's wheat exports at 22.5 million mt in MY 2021-22.

Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has seen a weak wheat export season in MY 2021-22 (July-June). Between June 1 and Feb. 24, Russia had shipped 26 million mt, 23% lower over the year. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated Russia's MY 2021-22 wheat exports at 36.5 million mt.

Russia is a major wheat supplier to Turkey, Egypt, and Kazakhstan, while Ukraine supplies wheat to Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia.

• [Editor:zhaozihao]