[Ferrosilicon Market] In November, the Ferrosilicon Futures turned against the declining trend and rose in a straight line, which greatly boosted the pessimism that has been lingering for a long time. In the middle and late of the month, it maintained a volatile consolidation operation. On the cost side, Shenmu Semi-coke Group issued a notice on November 8, deciding to implement a guidance price of 1800 CNY/T (ex-factory tax included price) for small-sized materials from 0:00 on November 9, which formed a temporary support for ferrosilicon market, but then it also fell to 1500 CNY/T successively. At the production end, the situation in the production areas has basically remained stable, and the operating rate has risen steadily. An enterprise in Ningxia has resumed production of 7 ferrosilicon furnaces this month. It was understood that there has also been an increase in production in places such as Inner Mongolia. It was expected that the ferrosilicon output would continue to rise in November. On the demand side, there were few inquiries at present, the transaction performance was under-performing, and the enthusiasm of the new round of steel mills tender was low (currently, the published prices were around 8500-8600 CNY/T). As the last round of steel tender this year, ferrosilicon manufacturers paid more attention to it and were not willing to ship at a low price, and the game between the supply and demand parties was strong. On November 30th, HBIS Group released 1399 tons of ferrosilicon 75B tender volume, an increase of 350 tons month on month. The spot price of 72 # ferrosilicon was firm at the end of the month, rising slightly by about 100 CNY/T; And the price of 75 # ferrosilicon declined due to the weakening of the downstream magnesium metal market. Although the manufacturers generally said that the inventory was low or even there was no inventory, under the pattern of stable supply and sluggish downstream demand and insufficient procurement follow-up, it’s necessary to guard against accumulation of inventory. Pay attention to the pricing setting of representative steel mills, supply and demand performance and Futures trend.

[Futures Market] In November, the opening price of 2301 contract was 7,820, the highest price was 8,690, the lowest price was 7,766, the closing price was 8,398, the settlement price was 8,350, the trading volume was 4,482,730, and the position was 144,111, an increase of 8.19%. 

[Ferrosilicon Exports] According to data of China Customs, in October 2022, China exported 36587.582 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight more than 55% of silicon), a month on month decrease of 6660.904 tons, or 15.40%; The year-on-year increase was 7696.172 tons, 26.64%. In October 2022, China exported 2407.1 tons of ferrosilicon (containing by weight ≤55% of silicon), an increase of 232.6 tons month on month, or 10.70%; The year-on-year increase was 515.1 tons, or 27.23%.

[Downstream Steel] With the implementation of a package of policies and follow-up measures to stabilize the economy, market sentiment has improved to a certain extent this month, steel prices have rebounded slightly, profits of steel mills have been restored to a certain extent, and inventories have declined continuously. However, in the traditional off-season, it was difficult to form a substantial positive situation. With the cold air coming, the demand for steel, especially in the north, shrinked significantly, showing continued weakness, and the demand for ferrosilicon released slowly; In addition, the transportation was blocked, the overall trading was not smooth, the actual shipment situation was less than expected, the spot price was easy to fall but difficult to rise, the mood was more pessimistic and cautious, and wait-and-see. At present, steel mills were not willing to reduce production, but they still needed to continue to pay attention to the actual demand performance.

[Downstream Magnesium] Affected by the continuous sluggish demand at domestic and abroad and the weak raw material market, the transaction performance of magnesium market was flat, and the mentality of purchasing price depression remained unchanged. In November, the magnesium price fell continuously, and the terminal procurement was more cautious. The situation of supply exceeding demand was still prevailing, and the market sentiment was not very optimistic. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory cash quotation including tax of 99.9% magnesium ingots was about 22100-22200 CNY/T. The magnesium market, which lacked the support of good news, would continue the weak consolidation trend in the short term.