[Ferro-Alloys.com] In November, Bloomberg reported that aluminum inventories from warehouses have been on decline for the last two years. More specifically, the London Metal Exchange experienced a surge or 21 percent in canceled warrants, which translated to 1.1 million metric tons over the course of three days in early November. Reuters reported recently, over the last two years, inventories have dropped roughly 46 percent.

 

Typically, a drop in warehouse inventories signals that the market is active, and getting tighter. Indeed with the cutbacks and smelter closures over the last few years, it would only make senses that prices would react accordingly. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case with aluminum as prices are still slipping.

 

“It’s unlikely to be related to real demand,” Leon Westgate, an analyst at ICBC Standard Bank in London, told Bloomberg. “With the large tonnages like that, it’s likely to be finance-related. It’s likely to be material moving to an ex-LME location.”

 

Reuters reported earlier in December that inventories have been painting a false image of the market. CRU is estimating that total global aluminum inventories, which takes into account unreported stocks, have edged up to 1.3 million tonnes in 2015, bringing the market to an all-time high of about 15 million tonnes.

 

This market oversupply is likely to continue to put pressure on prices, which have reached their lowest levels in more than six years, “mainly hit by oversupply in top producer China.”

 

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