[www.ferro-alloys.com] Sophie Jiang, who is the general editor of ferro-alloys.com, introduced the outlook of Chinese ferrosilicon and silicon manganese in February Vietnamese meeting about international ferroalloys and steel market. The next is the main points of her speech:

Yield trends: slowing economic growth, external demand was restrained, ferro-alloys industry mergers and acquisitions accelerated so as to restore balance between supply and demand.

Chinese silicon manganese saw historical changes, and main production areas transferred to north.

As for ferrosilicon, increasingly fierce competition between enterprises led to the strong stronger and the weak weaker, excess supply control will be a protracted war.

Ferroalloys price would be difficult to regain glory of the past after recent years shuffle, and tight capital spread to the whole industry. Huge production would be hard to change amid large furnaces and scale of production. However, everything has its own lifeline, supply and demand imbalance leads to price fluctuations. It is predicted that ferrosilicon prices fluctuates between RMB5,000-5,500/mt in 2016 while  RMB5,000-5,500/mt for silicon manganese in the first four months of 2016 with 50-60% operating rates.

Cost Tendency, cost different in different regions, reducing cost and increasing efficiency remains key to the survival and development of enterprises.

Price war brings about ferrosilicon market into a vicious circle, electricity prices changes are worth paying more attention to for ferrosilicon.

Demand and supply relation plays a key factor to affect manganese alloy price. In recent years, China saw the great change for the demand and supply relation of imported manganese ore, and excess supply of ore has already become a new norm. Given tremendous challenge on Chinese manganese alloys market, imported manganese ore cannot be an exception, the price will become the sharp weapon among miners for competition.

Trends in import and export trade: In the first half of 2015, global trade is still facing economic recovery without a sound foundation, frequent geopolitical risks and the slump in commodity prices and other factors; Chinese silicon-manganese and ferrosilicon alloy products in the import and export trade is also affected by the international economic environment, slowing investment, insufficient domestic demand, higher costs and tariffs high, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and many other factors. The second half, with interest rate cuts, reduction and tax cuts and other stimulus effect of gradual release as well as stability in the country's foreign trade, increasing investment and consumption and other measures, expect the situation to improve.

• [Editor:Chen Zhen Seng]