World Metal Statistics Bureau (WBMS) released the latest data that the nickel industry is probable from the supply of excess into a shortage. WBMS recently report shows that in 2016 from Jan. to Jun. global nickel market supply shortages, the apparent demand for more than 80.8 thousand tons of production. And in 2015 the whole year was 45.2 thousand tons of excess supply.

Nickel prices begin to shock upstream since February got the bottom line, From June to now it has been up to more than 20%. As of yesterday's close, Shanghai nickel mainly rose 0.28% to close at 81440 yuan / ton, over 20% nearly two months. At the same time, the outer disk of the LME three-month nickel from early June of $8450 / ton rose to the latest $10355 / tons, increasing amount 22.5%.

In this regard, China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan Group Chairman Yang Zhiqiang released an article in the recently showing: "from rose logic point of view, the recent increase is only long period beginning and conversion, nickel price is still long-term low, investment value can be expected."

For now, the growth of global nickel supply side stagnated. On the one hand is the reduction of supply nickel ore. WBMS latest data show that from Jan. to Jun. of this year, the global nickel mine production was 956.7 thousand tons, compared with the same period last year fell 100.4 thousand tons. Companies’ Mining prices also declined. The first half of the year, one of the world's big nickel industries Asia Nickel’s shipment over the same period last year fells 11.78%. At the same time, recently the domestic mining environmental rectification of nickel supply in Philippines affect the pivotal nickel supply of our country which relies largely on imported from overseas. According to statistics, in 27 nickel of Philippines 7 homes were temporarily closed, equivalent to more than 8% of the country’s total production capacities.

On the other hand is the contraction of smelting industry. WBMS latest data show that from Jan. to Jun. global refined nickel production amounted to 874 thousand tons, the demand for 955 thousand tons, the supply gap of 81 thousand tons. Under the influence of environmental pressure, the cost price upside down, the nickel iron industry operating rate remained low in 30%. Antaike data shows that in July this year, China's nickel iron production was 29.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 6%, down 18%.

In addition, the demand side emerge new growth. New energy vehicles heavy volume is expected to become the second major areas of nickel consumption. The agency expects that by 2025, the battery nickel will reach 120 thousand tons, by 2030 will reach more than 250 thousand tons. It expect from the year of 2016 within five years, the overall nickel consumption growth of more than 14%.

At this point, just experienced a round a sharp rise in the price of nickel is in shock consolidation, In short-term, biggest factor in speculation effects of nickel price is still the result of Philippines nickel mine environmental rectification. Huatai Futures Research Institute nickel analyst, told reporters that the current point of view, the probability is high for mining enterprises in Philippines to through environmental audit. If the three main nickel producing areas enter into the rainy season, and the other two areas of Zambales and Palawan shut down by the mining enterprises can't resume production, it may have an impact on the supply and increase the price.

• [Editor:malifang]