[ferro-alloys.com]China is unlikely to return to a situation of "unbridled" steel exports, even if domestic demand becomes negatively impacted by brewing trade tensions, the World Steel Association said Tuesday.

"I think what we see from the political leadership in China is a clear understanding that there's no benefit to upsetting markets unduly," Edwin Basson, director general of the association told media at Worldsteel's general assembly in Tokyo.

The understanding can be seen on two levels of Chinese leadership: Among its political leaders and the chiefs of steel companies, Basson said.

He praised China's efforts in having reduced crude steel capacity over the past few years and its elimination of induction furnace capacity as "incredible performance," which, he noted, resulted in the displacement of some 500,000 workers from the industry.

"Once you've made all these sacrifices as a society, I don't see that they'll go back to unbridled exports," Basson said.

Chinese steel exports from January to September totaled 53.5 million mt, or 5.94 million mt/month, according to General Administration of Customs data. The monthly average was a 5.8% decline from the 6.3 million mt/month last year.

TRADE TENSIONS HITTING VALUATIONS, NOT FLOWS

Early indications from trade friction centered on the US has so far not led to a disruption in the flow of steel trade globally, although it had seen changes in the "valuation" of trade, Basson said.

"It's almost too early to make a call, but we've not yet seen a dramatic change in the direction of trade," he said.

Referring to the situation 25 years ago in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the last time when trade tensions were this strong, Basson said the current situation was similar.

Basson noted that the proportion of steel produced that is traded has historically been about one in three tons. "It did go up to 36%-37%, but we're now back at 32% of what's produced," he said.

• [Editor:王可]