[Ferro-Alloys.com] Tshipi Q1 FY2026 Quarterly Activities Report

Q1 FY2026 Quarterly Activities Report: Summary The September 2025 quarter saw a material increase to mining of graded ore, as well as achievement of planned sales and production targets.

On-land logistics volumes increased marginally (by 1%) during the quarter. Low-grade ore production increased substantially (57% on the previous quarter).

Tshipi EBITDA decreased by 35% compared to the previous quarter, mostly driven by lower sales volumes. Cash increased in line with operating profits and working capital movements, notwithstanding the payment of a dividend during the previous quarter.

The September 2025 quarter saw average (realised) manganese prices remain in line with the June 2025 quarter average (US$3.86/dmtu, CIF) as a result of a balanced manganese ore market over the relevant period.

The spot price at 30 September 2025 was US$4.04/dmtu (CIF). At the end of October 2025 the spot price is US$4.07/dmtu (CIF), 1% higher than the price seen at the end of the September 2025 quarter.

Freight rates increased to US$24.70 per tonne, at the end of the September 2025 quarter (Port Elizabeth to Tianjin) compared with US$22.96 per tonne at the start of the September 2025 quarter (8% increase). Freight rates marginally decreased by the end of October 2025 (US$24.60, a 0.4% decrease).

Tshipi Manganese Mine

Key production, sales and financial information for Tshipi for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, and comparatives, are presented below:

MINING AND PRODUCTION

Mining of graded ore increased by 21%, while waste mining volumes decreased by 8% from the previous quarter.

Tshipi high-grade production decreased by 3% and low-grade ore production increased by 57%, with Tshipi building some finished low-grade ore stockpiles whilst production schedules allowed.

Cost of production decreased 4% to US$2.27 on an FOB basis for the quarter (and 3% lower against the prior corresponding period). The main reasons for the decrease were the increase in graded ore mining and production volumes, as well as cost control. This is particularly notable given the ZAR/USD strengthening during the quarter was a headwind for USD reported operating costs.

LOGISTICS AND SALES

Logistics volumes increased by 1% for the quarter, and were ahead of plan for the year to date. There was a planned Transnet shutdown during the quarter, during which Tshipi activated South African road haulage.

Sales volumes decreased in the quarter by 23%, after a strong sales quarter in Q4 FY2025, but remain ahead of plan for the year to ales volumes were on par with historical first quarter sales volumes (3% above Q1 averages since FY2019).

CORPORATE AND FINANCIAL

Tshipi recorded an EBITDA of A$26.6 million and NPAT of A$17.8 million for the quarter, a decrease on the previous quarter (A$40.9 million and A$25.9 million, respectively). The decrease was due to a combination of lower sales volumes and mix of product sold in the quarter. The previous quarter was bolstered by higher than usual sales volume.

During the quarter, Tshipi declared and paid a final dividend for FY2025 of ZAR300 million to its shareholders.

Marketing and Market Outlook

JUPITER MARKETING

Sales and financial information for Jupiter’s marketing entity for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, as well as comparatives, are presented below.

The prices shown below relate to the prices realised by Jupiter’s marketing team for the 49.9% share of Tshipi sales that are marketed by Jupiter.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Seaborne manganese ore prices for both semi carbonate and high grade oxide strengthened throughout the quarter. The Fastmarkets manganese ore semi carbonate index (36.5% Mn CIF Tianjin) was quoted at US$4.04/dmtu on 26 September 2025, up from US$3.83/dmtu on 27 June 2025 (an increase of US$0.21/dmtu).

Manganese ore stockpiles at major ports in China were generally rangebound through the quarter, increasing by 0.1 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes on 26 September 2025 as quoted. Stock levels at main ports in China are still well below the historical five year average level of circa 5.8 million tonnes and at quarter end levels represent marginally less than two months of consumption.

Manganese ore exports from major producing countries remained strong through the quarter, with only marginal changes in volumes exported from South Africa and Gabon since the preceding quarter. The most noticeable, and as expected, change to manganese ore supply was the return of steady export volumes for the full quarter from the majority owned South32 Limited manganese operation at Groote Eylandt.

Overall global higher ore supply, and export volumes, has resulted in higher manganese ore arrivals into China on a quarter-on-quarter comparative basis. The market in China has been able to digest these higher ore arrivals due to strong ore consumption from alloy plants in the country.

Manganese alloy production in China, including silico manganese and ferro manganese, has reportedly increased by circa 15% on a quarter-on-quarter comparative basis. With growing manganese alloy supply and declining downstream crude steel production, manganese alloy oversupply in the country is pressurising alloy prices and alloy plant margins.

Manganese ore exports to regions outside China have generally been stable on a quarter-on-quarter comparative basis, with increased exports to India offsetting declines to European and East Asian countries. This pattern is similarly reflected in the downstream steel production in these regions over the comparative periods, as noted below.

Crude steel production, as reported by the Worldsteel Association, has continued to face headwinds through calendar year 2025. This is particularly notable for China where production has generally shown a declining trend through most of the calendar year. Elsewhere, strong growth in India fuelled by railway infrastructure, urbanisation and renewable energy projects has managed to largely offset declining steel production in developed countries.

Globally, most countries continue to be adversely impacted by geopolitical tensions and trade as well as adverse macroeconomic factors impacting the broader economies as well as the steel industry and associated commodities.

The Worldsteel Association has recently released their Short Range Outlook for global steel demand in 2025 and 2026. Global steel demand is projected to be flat in 2025 and increase by 1.3% in 2026, as per the outlook this is attributable to the resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments and easing financing conditions.

As anticipated, crude steel production in China is forecast to decrease in both 2025 and 2026, primarily due to the continuing slump in the Chinese property market. Further downside risks noted include the global trade environment and continued financial pressure on local governments in the country.

Crude steel production from developing countries, particularly India but also countries within the ASEAN and MENA regions, are forecast to continue increasing. Developed countries, particularly within the EU and US, are projected to show steel demand growth in 2026 after four years of decline. This has been attributable to various factors, some of which include easing credit conditions improving real household income, lower forecast inflation, improvement in infrastructure as well as increased defence spending and private investment.

Post quarter end, manganese ore prices have continued to trend sideways with the manganese ore market operating stably mainly as a result of no material changes in supply and demand factors.

• [Editor:tianyawei]