【Ferro-alloys.com】: Global bauxite production is poised to rise in 2025, though analysts warn that political instability in key supplier Guinea could reshape the outlook for aluminium producers worldwide.

According to BMI’s latest Global Bauxite Mining Outlook, global output is forecast to increase 2 per cent to 451.3 million tonnes in 2025.

This is supported by new projects in Guinea and Australia, alongside rising aluminium demand from clean-energy technologies.

Australia’s production remains stable, with BMI expecting the country to account for 22.7 per cent of the world’s bauxite output in 2025, backed by strong project pipelines and decarbonisation-aligned investment.

A key driver is Metro Mining, which plans to lift production at the Bauxite Hills mine from 5.7Mt to 7Mt in 2025.

This prompted BMI to revise Australia’s 2025 growth forecast up to 3.5 per cent.

Further expansion across Rio Tinto and Alcoa’s portfolios will also support long-term output, according to the study.

However, the moderation from earlier growth expectations, previously 3.1 per cent, BMI said, reflects weaker-than-expected data out of mainland China and escalating regulatory risks in Guinea, which overtook Australia as the world’s top producer in 2023.

“While the bauxite sector is vital for Guinea’s economy, political instability and the rise of resource nationalism present ongoing risks to future projections,” the study said.

Guinea’s output surged to 123 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, eclipsing Australia’s 104Mt and solidifying its position as a global powerhouse in bauxite supply.

Despite near-term instability, BMI is expecting Guinea’s long-term supply will climb to 164Mt by 2034, driven by large reserves and sustained investment from China, which sourced 69 per cent of its 2024 bauxite imports from the country.

BMI said China’s domestic production is expected to “contract” in 2025, falling to 90.5Mt, due to declining ore grades, stricter regulations, and more competitive import options.

Imports of bauxite to China are rising sharply, with a 34 per cent year-on-year increase in the first half (H1) of 2025, with Guinea leading the shipments.

Beijing has also signalled plans to boost domestic reserves by 3 to 5 per cent by 2027, but BMI said that mentioned declining ore grades will force China to grow its dependency on foreign bauxite through the decade.

• [Editor:Alakay]