【Ferro-alloys.com】: The energy transition hinges on the availability of refined critical minerals. Where will they come from in the future?

This visualization shows the projected refining shares by 2030, based on data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and the International Energy Agency.

With one major exception, the data shows that one country will dominate future refining shares. China.

China to Dominate the Future of Critical Mineral Refining

By 2030, China will play a dominant role in lithium, rare earth elements (REEs), cobalt, and graphite, controlling nearly 60% of all critical mineral refining. Such concentrated processing capacity offers efficiencies that may lower costs but heightens geopolitical risk for downstream buyers.

It also leaves limited room for late-moving countries looking to gain share without major capital commitments.

Nickel’s Outlier: Indonesia Leads, China Trails

Nickel is the one mineral where China is not on top. Indonesia will command over 71.24% of refined nickel by leveraging its large ore reserves, expanding low-cost refineries, and enforcing a ban on raw ore exports.

China’s share is just 6.24%, with Russia at 3.26% and the rest of the world spread across “Other” at 19.27%. This shift positions Indonesia as a price-setting force in nickel used for stainless steel or EV batteries.

Copper Is More Fragmented; North America Plays Niche Roles

Copper refining is relatively diversified. China holds 44.63%, but “Other” countries make up 40.99%, indicating broader global refining capacity.

The U.S. appears notably in rare earths (REEs) at 5.14%, while Finland and Canada register meaningful shares in cobalt at 5.87% and 5.73%, respectively.

These footholds can strengthen regional EV supply chains, but they still pale in comparison to China’s scale.

• [Editor:Alakay]