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Print[Ferro-Alloys.com] Harbor Intelligence has shifted its tactical signal for aluminum to “neutral” from “sell,” but has a “strong buy” strategic signal for longer-term metal needs.
“We see prices trading mainly between USD1,800-2,000 per (metric) ton (82-91 cent/lb) probably until late September and as far as next March,” Harbor says in an updated outlook.
They continue that “Price downward support remains confirmed at USD 1,800 per ton (82 cent/lb) and prices have technically entered into a short-term upward trend. The risk of a short-term downward break, taking prices as low as USD 1,400 per ton (64 cent/lb), is now much lower than a week ago.”
“In spite of the above, we don't see conditions for a sustainable rally to occur soon. We have changed our model's tactical signal for very short-term metal needs to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell.’ Our strategic signal for 2013-2015 is ‘strong buy,’" the firm noted.
Harbor says aluminum prices offer “one of the most attractive values we have seen in at least three decades relative to physical demand/supply/inventory dynamics, production costs, scrap/secondary prices, China and even the most pessimistic forecasts.”
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