On 5 January local time, the World Bank organization released the January 2021 Global Economic Outlook report. In the report, the World Bank said that the global economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2021, assuming the new crown pneumonia vaccine is widely in the year. But if policymakers do not take decisive steps to stem the spread of the epidemic and implement pro-investment reforms, the recovery may be slow and weak.
Although the global economy resumed growth after shrinking by 4.3% in 2020, the report said, the New Crown epidemic has caused a large number of deaths and illnesses, plunged millions of people into poverty could inhibit economic activity and income growth in the long run. The primary policy focus in the short term is to control the spread of the epidemic and to ensure the rapid and widespread deployment of vaccines. To support economic recovery, the authorities also need to promote reinvestment cycles aimed at achieving sustainable growth that is less dependent on government debt.
David malpas, president of the world bank group, notes that while the global economy appears to have entered a slow recovery, policymakers face serious challenges in many areas, including public health, debt management, budget policy, central banking operations and structural reforms, as they work to ensure that the still fragile global recovery gains momentum and lays the foundation for strong growth. In order to overcome the impact of the epidemic and resist the headwind of investment, there is a need improve the business environment, increase flexibility in the labour and product markets, and enhance transparency and governance is needed.
It is estimated that the collapse of global economic activity in 2020 was slightly less severe than previously forecast, mainly due to a slight contraction in developed economies and a stronger recovery in China. On the contrary, the economic activities of most other emerging markets and developing economies were more affected than expected.
In the report, the Bank predicts annual growth in the Asia-Pacific region will reach 7.4%, driven mainly by China's recovery. China's economic growth is expected to climb to 7.9% in 2021, reflecting a faster than expected recovery in pent-up demand and production and exports. Due to China's rapid growth, the total GDP of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to grow by 5% in 2021 after contracting 2.6% in 2020.
In advanced economies, the rebound that had just taken place in the third quarter following the rise in infection rates stalled, indicating a slow and challenging recovery. After an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2020, the United States GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021. In the eurozone, output is expected to grow by 3.6% this year, following a 7.4% decline in 2020. Japan's economic activity contracted 5.3% in the past year and is expected to grow 2.5% in 2021.
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